What has changed in our models and site, and when. Changes to how forecasts are made are listed here the day they go live. This log starts on October 29, 2026. See how it works for the basics.
October 29, 2026 · Model
Spread and over/under percentages are shown at half strength
In our first graded games the spread and over/under percentages scored worse than saying 50% every time, in every league with at least 20 graded lines. Pulling them halfway toward 50% did better than the raw numbers in each of those samples, but still not better than 50%, so this is a cautious starting point and not a fix. Win probabilities are unchanged, and games already locked keep the numbers they were locked with. For the NHL puck line, which is always set at 1.5, we reduce how far apart the model thinks the teams are instead of pulling the percentage toward 50%.
October 29, 2026 · Site
The Monday record email
You can now ask for one short email each Monday: how the previous week’s locked forecasts did against the sportsbook market, wins and losses both. You confirm your address with a link first, and every email has a one-click way to stop it.
October 29, 2026 · Site
Live count of graded forecasts, share button and game previews
The home page now shows how many forecasts each league has graded and how far it is from the 100 we need before saying who is ahead. Each game page has a share button, and links to a game show a picture with the matchup and both percentages. This page and the how-it-works page are new.