Fulham at Man City
The market favourite is Man City at 66%, from sportsbook prices with the vig removed. VEMScore’s model has Man City at 59%.
| Outcome | Market (vig removed) | VEMScore model |
|---|---|---|
| Fulham | 15% | 17% |
| Man City | 66% | 59% |
| Draw | 19% | 24% |
How to read this
The market number is what the sportsbooks’ prices say about each outcome once the vig, the sportsbook’s built-in cut, is taken out. The model number is VEMScore’s own estimate, built from the final scores of past games. It never sees sportsbook prices. Where the two differ a lot, that is information, not a pick.
VEMScore locks each forecast before the game starts and grades it in public against the market, wins and losses both.
Get the Monday record
One short email a week: how last week’s locked forecasts did, graded against the sportsbook market. Wins and losses both. Probabilities, not picks.
We send a confirmation link first. One short email a week, plus a rare note when something big launches. Free, 21+. Unsubscribe any time. Privacy Notice