Man City at Arsenal
The market favourite is Arsenal at 46%, from sportsbook prices with the vig removed. VEMScore’s model has Arsenal at 45%.
| Outcome | Market (vig removed) | VEMScore model |
|---|---|---|
| Man City | 28% | 27% |
| Arsenal | 46% | 45% |
| Draw | 26% | 28% |
How to read this
The market number is what the sportsbooks’ prices say about each outcome once the vig, the sportsbook’s built-in cut, is taken out. The model number is VEMScore’s own estimate, built from the final scores of past games. It never sees sportsbook prices. Where the two differ a lot, that is information, not a pick.
VEMScore locks each forecast before the game starts and grades it in public against the market, wins and losses both.
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