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Arkansas at Virginia

Men’s college basketball · Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET · Numbers as of Nov 7, 12:10 PM ET

The market favourite is Virginia at 59%, from sportsbook prices with the vig removed.

OutcomeMarket (vig removed)VEMScore model
Arkansas41%Not yet
Virginia59%Not yet

Model warming up. It needs 5 games per team: ARK 1/5 · UVA 2/5

Point spread: Virginia -2.5 · Total: 158.5

How to read this

The market number is what the sportsbooks’ prices say about each outcome once the vig, the sportsbook’s built-in cut, is taken out. The model number is VEMScore’s own estimate, built from the final scores of past games. It never sees sportsbook prices. Where the two differ a lot, that is information, not a pick.

VEMScore locks each forecast before the game starts and grades it in public against the market, wins and losses both.

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